Here Are the Places Most at Risk From Record-Shattering Heat 科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫


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2023/06/16 第437期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 Here Are the Places Most at Risk From Record-Shattering Heat 科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫
'Kids Can't Read': The Revolt That Is Taking on the Education Establishment 「孩子們不識字」:美教育機構面對激烈反彈
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Here Are the Places Most at Risk From Record-Shattering Heat 科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫
文/Raymond Zhong
譯/羅方妤

科學家預測「這些地方」恐出現創紀錄高溫

Global warming is making dangerously hot weather more common, and more extreme, on every continent. A new study by researchers in Britain takes a unique approach to identifying which places are most at risk.

全球暖化使危險的炎熱天氣在各大陸更普遍且更極端。英國一項新研究採取一個獨特方法,確認哪些地方風險最高。

When the mercury spikes, communities can suffer for many reasons: because nobody checks in on older people living alone, because poorer people don't have air conditioning, because workers don't have much choice but to toil outdoors. The new study focuses on one simple reason societies might be especially vulnerable to an extreme heat wave: because they haven't been through one before.

氣溫升高時,社群可能由於許多理由受苦:因為沒有人察看獨居老人的狀況,因為較窮苦的民眾沒有空調,因為工人別無選擇只能在室外辛苦工作。這項新研究關注一些社群可能特別容易受極端熱浪影響的一個簡單理由:因為他們以前沒有經歷過。

Whether it's heat or floods or epidemics of disease, societies are generally equipped to handle only the gravest disaster they have experienced in recent memory. Right after a catastrophe, people and policymakers are hyper-aware of the risks and how to respond, said Dann Mitchell, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol in England and an author of the study. "And then, as the years go on, you sort of forget and you're not so bothered," he said.

無論是高溫、洪水還是疾病流行,社會通常只能應對他們近來經歷過最嚴重的災難。英國布里斯托大學氣候科學家、該研究的一名作者米契爾表示,一場大災難過後,民眾和政策制定者非常明白相關風險和如何應對災害,「然後,隨著歲月流逝,你就會有點忘記,你也不會那麼在意了」。

Mitchell and his colleagues looked at maximum daily temperatures around the world between 1959 and 2021. They found that regions covering 31% of Earth's land surface experienced heat so extraordinary that, statistically, it shouldn't have happened. These places, the study argues, are now prepared to some degree for future severe hot spells.

米契爾和他的同事檢視1959至2021年全球每日最高溫。他們發現,地球陸地表面31%地區經歷過非比尋常的高溫,從統計學而言,這根本不該發生。該研究認為,這些地區如今某種程度上已為未來的酷熱做好準備。

But there are still many areas that, simply by chance, haven't yet experienced such extreme heat. So they might not be as prepared.

然而,仍有許多地區剛好尚未經歷過這種極端高溫,因此他們可能沒做好準備。

According to the study, these include economically developed places like Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, plus the region of China around Beijing. But they also include developing countries like Afghanistan, Guatemala, Honduras and Papua New Guinea, that are more likely to lack resources to keep people safe.

研究指出,這些地區包括德國、荷蘭、比利時和盧森堡等經濟發達地區,以及中國大陸北京周圍地區,也包括阿富汗、瓜地馬拉、宏都拉斯和巴布亞紐幾內亞等開發中國家,他們更可能缺乏保障人民安全的資源。

Other areas at particular risk include far eastern Russia, northwestern Argentina and part of northeastern Australia.

其他特別具有風險的地方包括俄羅斯遠東地區、阿根廷西北部和澳洲東北部部分地區。

The study was published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.

這項研究周二發表在「自然通訊」期刊。

 

 
'Kids Can't Read': The Revolt That Is Taking on the Education Establishment 「孩子們不識字」:美教育機構面對激烈反彈
文/Sarah Mervosh
譯/周辰陽

「孩子們不識字」:美教育機構面對激烈反彈

In suburban Houston, parents rose up against a top-rated school district, demanding an entirely new reading curriculum.

在休士頓郊區,家長們站出來反對一個排名前列的學區,要求全新的閱讀教材。

At an elementary school in Hutchinson, Minnesota, a veteran teacher is crusading for reform, haunted by the fear that, for 28 years, she failed children because she was not trained in the cognitive science behind reading.

在明尼蘇達州哈欽森的一所小學,有位經驗豐富的教師正投身改革運動。28年來,她被有負於孩子的恐懼糾纏,因為她沒有受過閱讀背後的認知科學訓練。

And Ohio may become the latest state to overhaul reading instruction, under a plan by Gov. Mike DeWine.

根據州長狄懷恩的一項計畫,俄亥俄州可能成為最新全面修訂閱讀教學的州。

"The evidence is clear," DeWine said. "The verdict is in."

狄懷恩說,「證據確鑿,判決已下」。

A revolt over how children are taught to read, steadily building for years, is now sweeping school board meetings and statehouses around the country.

一場關於怎麼教孩子們閱讀的起義多年來穩定發展,現正席捲全國各地的教育委員會會議與州議會。

The movement, under the banner of "the science of reading," is targeting the education establishment: school districts, literacy gurus, publishers and colleges of education, which critics say have failed to embrace the cognitive science of how children learn to read.

打著「閱讀科學」的旗號,這場運動瞄準教育機構:學區、識字導師、出版商跟教育學院,批評人士說這些機構未能接納兒童怎麼學習閱讀的認知科學。

Research shows that most children need systematic, sound-it-out instruction — known as phonics — as well as other direct support, like building vocabulary and expanding students' knowledge of the world.

研究表明,大多數兒童需要系統化、將每個音節唸出的指導方式,也就是名為「自然發音」的教學及其他的直接支持,像是增進字彙和擴展學生們對世界的認識。

The movement has drawn support across economic, racial and political lines. Its champions include parents of children with dyslexia; civil rights activists with the NAACP; lawmakers from both sides of the aisle; and everyday teachers and principals.

這個運動吸引了跨越經濟、種族與政治界線的支持,它的擁護者包括了患有讀寫障礙孩子的雙親、美國有色人種促進會的民權活動家、來自兩黨的立法者以及普通的教師與校長。

Together, they are getting results.

他們正在一起取得成果。

Ohio, California and Georgia are the latest states to push for reform, adding to almost 20 states that have made moves in the past two years. Under pressure, school districts are scrapping their old reading programs. Even holdouts like New York City, where hundreds of elementary schools were loyal to a popular but heavily criticized reading curriculum, are making changes.

俄亥俄州、加州與喬治亞州是最新推動改革的州,加入已在過去二年採取行動的近20個州。迫於壓力,學區正在廢棄他們的舊閱讀計畫。甚至像紐約市這樣的死硬派也在做出改變,當地數以百計小學仍忠於流行卻飽受批評的閱讀教材。

About 1 in 3 children in the United States cannot read at a basic level of comprehension, according to a key national exam. The outcomes are particularly troubling for Black and Native American children, nearly half of whom score "below basic" by eighth grade.

根據一項重要的全國考試,美國約三分之一兒童閱讀能力無法達到基本的理解程度。對於黑人與美國原住民兒童來說,結果尤其令人不安,其中將近半數在八年級時成績「低於基本程度」。

"The kids can't read — nobody wants to just say that," said Kareem Weaver, an activist with the NAACP in Oakland, California, who has framed literacy as a civil rights issue and stars in a new documentary, "The Right to Read."

加州奧克蘭的美國有色人種促進會社運人士韋佛說,「孩子們無法閱讀,沒人願意就這麼說」。他界定識字為民權問題,並在一部新紀錄片《閱讀的權利》演出。

Science of reading advocates say the reason is simple: Many children are not being correctly taught.

閱讀科學的倡議者說,原因很簡單:許多兒童沒有得到正確的教導。

 
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