譯/莊蕙嘉
東歐民粹領袖的小麻煩:顧人怨
A right-wing populist wave in Eastern Europe, lifted by Donald Trump's surprise victory in 2016, has not crashed as a result of his defeat last November. But it has collided with a serious obstacle: Its leaders are not very popular.
川普2016年的驚奇勝選在東歐掀起一波右翼民粹浪潮,雖未因他去年11月敗選而潰散,但遭遇一項重大阻礙:這些國家的領導人不是非常受歡迎。
After winning elections by railing against widely disliked elites, right-wing populists on Europe's formerly communist eastern flank, it turns out, are themselves not much liked. That is due in large part to unpopular coronavirus lockdowns, and, like other leaders no matter their political complexion, their stumbling responses to the health crisis.
藉由挑戰普遍不受喜愛的菁英而贏得選舉後,這些東歐前共黨地區的右翼民粹分子,事實上自己也不怎麼討人喜歡。這大部分肇因於令人厭惡的新冠病毒封城措施,以及他們對這次公衛危機的錯誤處置,就像其他犯錯的領導人一樣,無論其政治色彩為何。
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is being countered by an uncharacteristically united opposition. In Poland, the deeply conservative government has made an abrupt shift to the left in economic policy to win back support. And in Slovenia, the hard-right governing party of the Trump-loving prime minister is slumping disastrously in the polls.
在匈牙利,總理奧班遭遇反對派非比尋常的聯合挑戰。在波蘭,極度保守的政府在經濟政策上向左急轉以贏回支持。在斯洛維尼亞,喜愛川普的總理領導的強硬右翼執政黨,民調暴跌。
Slovenia's leader, Janez Jansa, who made international headlines by congratulating Trump on his "victory" in November and is a self-declared scourge of liberal, or what he calls communist, elites, is perhaps the most at risk of the region's unpopular populists.
斯洛維尼亞領導人楊薩,去年11月因恭賀川普「勝選」而成為國際頭條,他自稱會痛擊自由派或他口中的共產黨及菁英,如今或許他才是區域內不受歡迎的民粹主義者中處境最危險的人。
Propelled by nationalist promises to bar asylum-seekers from the Middle East and "ensure the survival of the Slovenian nation," Jansa's Slovenian Democratic Party won the most votes in a 2018 election. Last year, a new coalition government led by the party had an approval rating of 65%.
楊薩的斯洛維尼亞民主黨提出一些國族主義承諾,包括阻絕來自中東尋求庇護者,並「確保斯洛維尼亞國家生存」,促使該黨在2018年選舉贏得最多票數。去年由該黨領導的新聯合政府,支持度達65%。
This has since plunged to 26% and Jansa is so unpopular that allies are jumping ship. Street protests against him have attracted as many as tens of thousands of people, huge turnouts in a normally placid Alpine nation with a population of just 2 million.
如今支持度卻暴跌至26%,由於楊薩太不受歡迎,盟友紛紛跳船。反對他的街頭抗議吸引多達數萬人,在這個人口不過200萬的阿爾卑斯山脈寧靜國家算很多人。
Jansa has staggered on, narrowly surviving a no-confidence vote in parliament and a recent impeachment attempt by opposition legislators and defectors from his coalition.
楊薩勉強保住位子,以微幅差距挺過國會不信任投票,還有最近一次反對派議員及從聯合政府出走者發動的彈劾。But he has been so weakened "he does not have the power to do anything" other than curse foes on Twitter, said Ziga Turk, a professor and Cabinet minister in an earlier government headed by Jansa.
曾在楊薩領導的政府擔任內閣部長的特克教授說,楊薩實在太弱勢,「無力做任何事」,只能在推特上詛咒對手。
An admirer of Hungary's Orban, Jansa has sought to bring the news media to heel, as nationalist governments in Hungary and Poland have largely succeeded in doing, at least with television.
身為奧班仰慕者,楊薩試圖讓媒體聽話。匈牙利和波蘭的國族主義政府大致都做到,至少在電視是如此。
But the only television station that consistently supports him, has less than 1% of the television audience on most days — that it does not even figure in ratings charts.
但是持續支持他的唯一一家電視台,多數日子只有不到1%電視觀眾收看,甚至上不了收視率排行榜。