Could India Help Broker Peace in Ukraine? 印度能幫忙促成烏克蘭和平嗎?


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讀紐時學英文
2022/12/16 第413期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 Could India Help Broker Peace in Ukraine? 印度能幫忙促成烏克蘭和平嗎?
CEOs Are Talking More About Recession 美企執行長對經濟衰退愈感憂心
紐時周報精選
 
Could India Help Broker Peace in Ukraine? 印度能幫忙促成烏克蘭和平嗎?
文/Jeffrey Gettleman、Mujib Mas
譯/陳韋廷

印度能幫忙促成烏克蘭和平嗎?

In July, when a critical deal was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to free up millions of pounds of desperately needed Ukrainian grain, India played an important behind-the-scenes role in helping sell the plan to Russia, which had been blockading the grain ships.

今年七月,當聯合國與土耳其斡旋達成一項關鍵協議,釋放數百萬磅急需的烏克蘭穀物時,印度在幕後扮演了重要角色,協助向俄羅斯推銷該計畫。俄羅斯一直在封鎖這些穀物船。

Two months later, when Russian forces were shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine, leaving the world anxious about a nuclear catastrophe, India stepped in again and asked Russia to back off.

兩個月之後,當俄軍砲轟烏克蘭札波羅熱核電廠,令世界對核災感到焦慮時,印度再次介入,要求俄羅斯後退。

Throughout the Ukraine war, India has quietly assisted during a few pivotal moments such as these. Last week, India's foreign minister traveled to Moscow for meetings with Russian officials on economic and political issues. Diplomats and foreign-policy experts are watching closely to see if India can use its unique leverage as one of the world's largest countries that is a friend to both East and West to press Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

整個烏克蘭戰爭期間,印度在諸如此類的幾個關鍵時刻默默提供協助。印度外長上周前往莫斯科,與俄羅斯官員就經濟和政治問題舉行會談。外交官與外交政策專家正密切關注,印度能否利用身為世界最大國家之一並跟東西方友好的獨特影響力,迫使俄羅斯結束在烏克蘭的戰爭。

Russia and Ukraine are far from negotiating with each other; Ukraine feels it has momentum on the battlefield and is in no mood to talk, and Russia is hardly relenting either. But the widespread belief is that if the fighting reaches a stalemate, and the energy crisis makes life really miserable in Ukraine and across Europe this winter, the prospect of a negotiated settlement or at least a cease-fire may arise.

俄羅斯和烏克蘭完全不談判;烏克蘭覺得自己在戰場上擁有氣勢,無心談判,俄羅斯也幾乎沒有鬆懈下來。但人們普遍認為,若戰鬥陷入僵局,能源危機讓烏克蘭跟整個歐洲今冬生活變得非常悲慘,以談判來解決或是至少停火的機會可能出現。

India's leader, Narendra Modi, seems to enjoy a good rapport with Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin, with whom he shares certain strongman characteristics.

印度領導人莫迪似乎與俄羅斯領導人普亭關係融洽,兩人都擁有某些強人特徵。

But the Ukraine crisis and the escalating tensions between Russia and the West are testing India's tightrope act. It continues to buy Russian oil, lots of it, which angers Ukraine and the United States. And it has refused to support resolutions at the United Nations that have condemned Russia's aggression.

但烏克蘭危機以及俄國與西方不斷升級的緊張關係,正考驗印度的走鋼索行為。該國繼續大量購買俄羅斯石油,激怒了烏克蘭跟美國。它還拒絕支持聯合國譴責俄羅斯侵略的決議。

Yuri Makarov, chief editor of the Ukrainian national broadcasting company and a popular commentator based in Kyiv, was surprised to hear that Indian officials had been contemplating peace efforts.

當得知印度官員一直在考慮和平行動時,烏克蘭國家廣播公司主編、基輔頗受歡迎的評論員馬卡洛夫感到驚訝。

"I wonder if they have their own idea of the real Ukrainian situation," he said, adding that he had yet to meet any Indian diplomats, intellectuals or journalists in Kyiv.

他說,「我好奇他們是否對烏克蘭真實情況有自己的看法」,並稱自己還沒在基輔見到任何印度外交官、知識分子或記者。

His instinct, he said, was that Israel or Turkey would be better-informed mediators.

他表示,他的直覺是以色列或土耳其會成為消息較為靈通的調解人。

Still, Makarov said, "Russia doesn't want Ukraine to exist."

不過,馬卡洛夫說:「俄羅斯不希望烏克蘭存在。」

He added, "So I don't see an option for talks, sadly."

他接著說:「所以很遺憾,我看不到有談判的選項。」

 

 
CEOs Are Talking More About Recession 美企執行長對經濟衰退愈感憂心
文/Stephen Gandel
譯/陳韋廷

美企執行長對經濟衰退愈感憂心

Despite a surprisingly resilient labor market, talk of an economic downturn is on the lips of corporate leaders.

儘管勞動市場意外展現韌性,企業領導人仍在談論經濟衰退。

James S. Tisch, CEO of Loews, the hotel, insurance and industrial conglomerate, said on an earnings call with analysts last week that his "fearless forecast" was for recession, but not one that would be as "cataclysmic as '08 or '09."

飯店、保險與工業集團Loews執行長堤許上周在財報電話會議上對分析師說,他的「大膽預測」是經濟陷入衰退,但不會像2008年或09年那樣「災難性」。

And William J. Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts International, told analysts last week that he and his executives were "not blind," and that they "remain keenly aware of the impact of inflation" and the potential that the economy was headed for a downturn.

米高梅國際酒店集團執行長洪巴克上周告訴分析師,他跟他的主管們「沒瞎」,他們「仍敏銳地意識到通膨影響」,以及經濟走向衰退的潛在風險。

Recession has been an increasingly hot topic. It's customary for large public companies to hold conference calls with analysts after they report their earnings. Of the 409 companies listed on the S&P 500-stock index that have held analyst calls to discuss the most recent quarter, the R-word came up as a topic 165 times, according to Sentieo, a market data provider.

經濟衰退已成為一個愈來愈熱門的話題。公布財報後,大型上市公司通常會跟分析師舉行電話會議。根據市場數據供應商Sentieo的數據,舉行分析師電話會議討論最新一季財報的標普500股指上市公司中,衰退一字被其中409家公司當成討論主題165次。

A year ago, "recession" was uttered on 42 earnings calls by S&P 500 firms for the third quarter. Discussions about a recession have been elevated throughout this year, with big year-over-year jumps in the first and second quarters as well.

一年前,標普500指數公司中有42家在第三季財報電話會議上提到「衰退」。今年以來,有關衰退的討論一直在升溫,第一季和第二季的熱度均較一年前大幅增加。

Two weeks ago, Federal Reserve officials made a fourth supersize interest rate increase in an effort to tame inflation, heightening fears of an economic slump. The Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, said he thought there was still a window for a so-called soft landing, in which inflation dissipates but the economy does not fall into a recession.

兩周前,美國聯準會官員第四次大幅升息抑制通膨,加劇對經濟衰退的擔憂情緒。聯準會主席鮑爾說,他認為仍有實現所謂軟著陸的可能性,也就是通膨消散,但經濟不會陷入衰退。

"Has it narrowed? Yes," Powell told reporters. "Is it still possible? Yes."

鮑爾告訴記者:「降溫了嗎?是的。還有可能嗎?是的。」

Some economic indicators released last week seemed to back Powell's view. Last quarter, the gross domestic product rose at a better-than-expected annual pace of 2.6%. On Friday, the government reported that employers added 261,000 jobs to their payrolls in October, which was also above expectations.

上周公布的部分經濟指標似乎支持鮑爾的觀點。美國上一季國內生產毛額年增率2.6%,優於預期。根據政府周五的報告,十月新增就業人數26萬1,000人,也超出預期。

Nonetheless, CEOs on 88 third-quarter conference calls said that the Fed's raising of interest rates to fight inflation was either a major factor slowing their business, or that they expected it to be, according to Sentieo. Last week, Steven Roth, real estate developer and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust, told analysts that because the Fed was "deadly serious" in fighting inflation, "the economy is clearly slowing."

儘管如此,Sentieo指出,在第三季88場電話會議上,執行長們稱聯準會升息抗通膨,不是自家業績放緩的一項主因,就是他們預期的一項因素。房地產開發商Vornado Realty Trust執行長羅斯上周告訴分析師,由於聯準會在抗通膨上「非常認真」,「經濟明顯正在走緩」。

 

 
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