譯/高詣軒
法治忠誠難兩全 川普「密件案」考驗同黨參選人
The federal indictment of former President Donald Trump has left the Republican Party — and his rivals for the party's nomination — with a stark choice between deferring to a system of law and order that has been central to the party's identity for half a century or a more radical path of resistance, to the Democratic Party in power and to the nation's highest institutions that Trump now derides.
美國前總統川普遭聯邦起訴，讓共和黨陣營以及爭取黨內提名的對手陷入一場嚴峻抉擇，該選擇服膺半世紀來一向是該黨核心理念的法律與秩序機制，或者要選擇一條更激進的反抗路線，對抗當權的民主黨和川普如今不屑一顧的國家最高體制。
How the men and women who seek to lead the party into the 2024 election respond to the indictments of the former president in the coming months will have enormous implications for the future of the GOP.
爭取帶領共和黨迎戰2024年大選的男男女女，未來幾個月要如何回應這位前總統的起訴案，將對該黨未來有巨大潛在影響。
So far, the declared candidates for the presidency who are not Trump have divided into three camps regarding his federal indictment : those who have strongly backed him and his insistence that the indictment is a politically driven means to deny him a second White House term, such as Vivek Ramaswamy; those who have urged Americans to take the charges seriously, such as Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson; and those who have straddled both camps, condemning the indictment but nudging voters to move past Trump's leadership, such as Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
目前除川普以外，宣布角逐總統大位的參選人對於他遭聯邦起訴，分成三類陣營：有人力挺川普，認同川普堅稱起訴是具政治動機的手段，意在使他無法回到白宮展開第二任期，例如拉馬斯瓦米；有人呼籲美國人須嚴正看待起訴，例如克利斯蒂和哈欽森；還有人腳踏兩陣營，既譴責起訴又示意選民應揮別川普的領導，例如德桑提斯和海理。
The trick, for all of Trump's competitors, will be finding the balance between harnessing the anger of the party's core voters who remain devoted to him while winning their support as an alternative nominee.
所有川普競爭者的竅門，將會是找到平衡點，要利用仍然忠於川普的共和黨核心選民之怒，同時要作為替代的提名人選去贏得他們的支持。
The danger for Republicans, after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, is that encouraging too much anger could lead to chaos — and to what pollsters call the "ghettoization" of their party: confined to minority status by voters unwilling to let go of the fervent beliefs that have been rejected by the majority.
2021年1月6日國會山莊暴動事件後，共和黨陣營的危險在於，激起過多憤怒可能導致脫序局面，也導致民調機構所稱該黨的「隔都化」，意即該黨因選民不願放棄被多數人摒棄的狂熱信念，陷入少數派處境。
How the party, and its 2024 candidates, respond will matter, to the country and to the party's political fortunes. The core Republican voter might stand with Trump, but most Americans most likely will not. It is a dilemma, acknowledged Clifford Young, president of U.S. public affairs at the polling and marketing firm Ipsos.
共和黨和黨內2024年參選人如何應對，對於國家和該黨政治命運至關重要。死忠於共和黨選民可能力挺川普，但大多數美國人很可能不會。民調與行銷公司易普索的美國公共事務總裁柯立福．楊坦言，這是個兩難處境。
"For the average American in the middle, they're appalled," he said, "but for the base, not only is support being solidified, they don't believe what is happening."
「對於一般的美國中間選民，他們很震驚」，他表示，「但對於基本盤，不只（川普的）支持度更為穩固，他們還不相信正在發生的事」。
"Heck," he added, "they believe he won the election."
「要命」，他補充說道，「他們相信他贏了那次大選」。
